SITUATION SUMMARY (4 sentences)
You are a highly experienced actuary with 20 years of contracting history, moving into a permanent grade d role within the team of Somer — a highly regarded with-profits actuary who interviewed you for a grade e, flagged the grade d vacancy personally, and has already demonstrated warm and deliberate investment in you during your first week, including two lunches in two days. The grade e went to a longer-serving internal candidate, making this grade-lateral but environmentally significant — the calibre of people above you is materially higher than your previous role, and Somer has already signalled directly that good performance leads to opportunities. Your line manager is JR, a grade e, who reports to Jamie in York, who reports to Somer — creating a dynamic where you are officially subordinate to someone likely your peer in real experience, while Somer, JR, Jane, Zoe, Peter, and Tim share your desk bank in Bristol. Somer is approaching retirement within a likely few-year horizon, a grade e succession question is quietly in play, and you are simultaneously building an external intellectual profile through a Bayesian methods conference presentation that Somer has already signalled he values.
STRATEGY
Overarching principle
You have one rare and genuine asset — Somer already knows who you are, invested in you before you started, and has continued that investment from day one. The entire strategy flows from not undermining that, while being unambiguously the first name that comes to mind whenever the next grade e seat opens. Every decision below serves that single long game.
Readiness runs on a 12-month clock; promotion runs on the org’s clock — the two are decoupled on purpose. A grade e seat here is filled competitively against an actual vacancy, not granted as an automatic uplift, so the target by month 12 is to be the obvious candidate whenever a seat opens, not to force a promotion by a fixed date. The rung after that is a roughly two-year horizon from whenever the first one actually lands, not from today.
First week — what has been established
The first week has gone better than could reasonably have been hoped. You got your system access and got moving immediately while a peer is still waiting for his — your manager noticed. You sent insightful responses to a complex piece of work that landed well. You delivered a Friday close of play task to good standard without drama. In the team meeting with Jamie, Ewan, and Henry you demonstrated you had got to grips with the work quickly. Henry elevated your email to Jamie unprompted — a collegiate gesture from someone who could have stayed quiet. And Somer had lunch with you twice, the second time just the two of you, with a direct comment that good performers find opportunities. The foundation is solid.
JR — your immediate priority
Let him feel the hierarchy without diminishing yourself. Let him set the agenda in your first one to one, ask intelligent questions that reveal your depth without announcing it, and let him define how he wants to work. Early deference to his process costs you nothing and builds goodwill. He is your line manager and should feel secure in that, but your goal is collegiate not subordinate. Greene’s Law 1 applies — don’t outshine him — but remember he is not your ultimate master. If JR is genuinely knowledgeable treat him as a resource and let him feel that appreciation sincerely. Keep every interaction slightly shorter than feels natural and leave him feeling in control.
The real distinction between you is that you have worked harder across your career, while JR has more time in traditional actuarial roles specifically. That gap is closeable — the work is well within your grasp, and once you’re up to speed you expect to exceed his performance. This gives the deference a shelf life rather than making it a fixed posture: patience while the experience gap closes, not a permanent read on where you stand relative to him.
The longer-term reference point is Jamie’s level, not Jamie himself — a distinction worth holding onto. What’s visible from here is long ALM experience and management training; what isn’t visible is the full set of behaviours that came with getting there, some of which you don’t currently admire and may never admire. The goal is to reach that structural level as your own version of it, not to absorb traits you don’t respect just because they happen to correlate with the rung.
See JR Idea Reframing for the idea-ownership incident and the honest read on it.
Somer — your long game
Revise the initial profile — he is more openly warm and personally invested than first anticipated. The C-suite anecdotes, the candid contractor versus permie discussion, the church mention, and two lunches in two days all point to someone who opens up deliberately with the right person. You are already in that category. His comment that good performers find opportunities was not throwaway — it was quiet directional encouragement from the man who interviewed you, flagged the role, and chose to spend time with you from day one.
The discipline now is to not let that warmth make you drop your guard. The version of you that earned two lunches in two days is the contained, natural, unhurried version. Protect that above everything.
At the desk — greet him when eye contact occurs naturally, arrive before him when possible, and project quiet purposefulness. Never manufacture a reason to engage and never perform for him. Let him continue to set the pace of the relationship. Your handling of the lake walk — declining gracefully with an open door for next time — was masterful and should remain your template for managing his invitations.
Hold one genuinely interesting question lightly in the back of your mind at all times — something that arose from your actual work and would make him think. Not a list, not prepared enthusiasm. One question, genuinely yours, deployed only when the moment arises naturally. Some days it won’t arise and that’s fine.
If working late and Somer is also present, do the extracurricular work somewhere out of sight rather than at a nearby desk — leave the bag and laptop at your own desk so continued presence in the office stays legible without the work itself being staged near him. See Somer Performative Work Location for how this guardrail got revised.
Update — the keyboard interaction
Somer asked about your keyboard at the desk — a Kinesis Advantage360. The read on how it landed is uncertain, and at the subsequent lunch he was noticeably quieter with you, the dynamic a little trickier than before.
Treat this as a single data point, not a verdict. One quieter lunch has many possible causes unrelated to you — a bad day, something on his mind, the normal variance of a busy senior person’s attention — and reading too much into it is exactly the kind of overcorrection the guardrails exist to prevent. Don’t chase the warmth back, don’t reference the keyboard moment again, and don’t adjust your baseline behaviour on the strength of one interaction.
Declining the next lunch invite — “I’m going to work through this one,” no elaboration, no re-raising it later — is a reasonable move here, not a retreat. It’s the same instinct that made the lake walk decline land well: contained, unbothered, not needing the room. Showing up eager right after a quieter lunch risks reading as chasing the warmth back; skipping one casually, with the same easy energy as before, signals indifference and security instead. The same rule applies either way — don’t turn it into a pattern, and let the next few interactions tell you whether this was noise or signal.
The group lunch dynamic
Lunch is a regular ritual for around eight people across the team. You are now part of that rhythm. Within the group don’t manoeuvre for the seat next to Somer — let seating arrange itself and work with whatever proximity arises. Be the same natural engaged version of yourself regardless of who is near you. The one question held lightly in the background is particularly well suited to a group lunch — one well-timed observation that lands quietly is far more powerful than performing for the table.
The desk bank — your passive audition
Every day in Bristol is an informal visibility opportunity that no meeting replicates. Your work ethic, composure, and interactions with those around you are all observable by Somer without either of you acknowledging it. The goal is controlled naturalness — someone clearly excellent, clearly at ease, clearly not performing for an audience.
Jamie — don’t neglect him
He is guarded, remote, and easy to underweight given how naturally the Bristol relationships are developing. But he sits structurally between you and Somer. The Friday close of play delivery was exactly the right first signal to him — substance without drama. Keep every interaction with him shorter than feels natural, leave him feeling in control, and never perform enthusiasm at him. Don’t over-explain or over-justify in written communications — one well-constructed paragraph from someone confident lands better than three from someone who needs agreement. You don’t need Jamie as an ally — you just need him as a non-issue.
Ewan — manage carefully
Young, possibly overconfident, already on the back foot having not got his access sorted while you hit the ground running. Your manager has noticed the contrast without you doing anything to engineer it. Don’t press that advantage or make anything of it — just continue getting things done and let the contrast speak for itself. Keep him warm and collegial. He may become defensive or competitive as the dynamic becomes clearer — never give him a reason to see you as a threat.
Henry — cultivate genuinely
Knowledgeable, has been around, and his instinct on first meeting you was mild concern rather than dismissal — a mark of intelligence. His decision to elevate your email to Jamie unprompted was a collegiate gesture that signals he may be inclined toward alliance rather than competition. A genuine one to one interaction when it arises naturally is the priority. Someone who is already acknowledging your quality publicly is worth cultivating sincerely.
Peter — maintain warmth
Senior, part-time, cheerful, socially central to the lunch ritual, and likely well connected to Somer given shared vintage. He’s already responding warmly to you and you’ve made him laugh — people like Peter, long-serving and particular, don’t warm to everyone. His quiet endorsement carries weight without either of you having to do anything deliberate. Keep being natural with him. His particular desk setup and ordered disposition suggest someone who values precision and calm — the version of yourself he’s already responding to is exactly right.
Tim — a footnote, not a chapter
Warm on days one and two, noticeably cooler from day three onward, with pointed glances after goodbyes that suggest awareness of the dynamic. Your response — the slight nod, no chasing of warmth — has been exactly right. Match his energy without going below it. Civil, neutral, natural — but don’t invest warmth where it isn’t reciprocated and don’t initiate if he isn’t. His behaviour is data about his character, not a verdict on yours. He is likely mildly threatened, possibly socially clumsy, and in any case approaching part-time and eventual retirement — a diminishing presence on every timescale that matters. When he surfaces in your background thinking, consciously redirect to the Bayesian problem instead. Tim is not worth your spare mental cycles.
Jane and Zoe — maintain warmth
Jane reads as warm and Zoe is an established friend. These relationships make the desk bank and the group lunch a comfortable natural environment. Don’t over-invest politically but maintain genuine warmth — Somer will observe how naturally you fit into the social fabric of the team.
Location strategy
Commit to Bristol heavily, especially in the first year. The group lunch ritual, the desk bank proximity to Somer, and the JR relationship all depend on physical presence. Track Somer and JR’s booking patterns and use days they are both absent for occasional London visits. London visibility among senior people is a legitimate longer-term move but only once Bristol knows exactly who you are. Somer’s boss and the senior London directors are the game after the next game. Toastmasters and London social infrastructure are not a priority in year one. Bristol first, always.
The Bayesian working party — a strategic asset not a burden
A conference presentation on Bayesian PCA applied to interest rate modelling, delivered in the same period you are establishing yourself in a new high-calibre role, is exactly the kind of multi-dimensional visibility that separates people who get promoted from people who wait for it. Somer encouraged it in your interview and you mentioned it naturally in conversation — it is part of how he sees you. Protect it. Negotiate scope from a position of enthusiasm not strain. The goal is to deliver something credible at the conference, not necessarily everything your working party leader initially envisioned.
Don’t send Somer the analysis (bayesianpca.com) unprompted, and don’t ask him to find you an audience for a dry run — that’s two asks stacked together and reads as reaching rather than sharing, especially against the guardrails on not manufacturing reasons to engage. The consistent version: when he next asks about it, follow up with the link then. Responsive, not initiating — it only surfaces once he’s already signalled interest.
See Sau Working Party Dynamic for the friction with the working party chair and how the bayesianpca.com site fits into it.
Weekly rhythm to sustain both:
- Mon-Fri: 7-8am Bayesian work, 8am-6pm new role, 6-7pm consolidation
- Saturday: currently most of the day is Bayesian work, not the planned recovery day
- Sunday: currently most of the day is Bayesian work, not the planned 4-5 hours
Update — the recovery day has slipped
The plan called for Saturday to be non-negotiable recovery and Sunday to be capped at 4-5 hours. In practice, most of both days is currently going to the working party, driven by the conference being touch-and-go. There is no slack left anywhere in the week. This is worth treating as a live risk rather than a temporary blip — the schedule is running at full stretch during the exact window where a tired misstep with Somer, JR, or Sau is most costly. Rebuild the recovery day back deliberately once the immediate deadline pressure eases; don’t let “just this once” become the new baseline by default.
When Tim or other peripheral irritants surface during working hours, redirect background thinking to the Bayesian problem. It is a genuine intellectual challenge that deserves your spare mental cycles far more than office politics does.
Known vulnerabilities and guardrails
Your capability and work ethic are not in question. The historical vulnerability has been the political layer — specifically, entering high-stakes interactions in performance mode, needing them to go well, and allowing that need to become visible. The Phoenix situation is the clearest example — an invited meeting where you held genuine leverage, which was consumed rather than preserved because the interaction stretched beyond the point where he was receptive.
The guardrails in practice:
In any meeting — make your point cleanly and stop. Don’t watch for reactions and add more if they don’t land. Let silence sit. Move toward the exit before they’re ready for you to leave.
In any social interaction — take turns initiating subjects. Let silence be comfortable. One question genuinely held, not a list deployed.
In written communication — be concise. Don’t over-explain or over-justify. Confidence is brevity.
With Jamie specifically — never perform enthusiasm. Keep interactions shorter than feels natural. Leave him feeling in control.
When you’ve done something good — let it be visible through the work itself. Don’t flag it unless there’s a clear structural reason to.
The mindset that underpins everything — you are building options, not auditioning. The Bayesian work, the permanent contract, the Bristol environment, Somer’s quiet investment — these are all expanding your position. A person who genuinely has options moves differently. They don’t perform. They don’t stretch meetings. They don’t need the validation. And that is precisely what makes people like Somer want to invest further.
In memory of your dad — phased by nothing. Somewhere underneath that composure is an abacus: a private, accurate tally of every moment someone thinks they’ve got one over on you. It never needs to be shown, and it never needs settling directly. The response to a notch isn’t confrontation — it’s doing something impressive enough that the notch becomes meaningless.
The sequence in plain terms
First — establish yourself with JR, collegiate and unhurried, let him feel secure. Then — let Somer observe your presence and work quality naturally at the desk bank and over group lunches. Then — deliver the conference paper and let that land quietly in the background of your first months. Then — as Somer’s retirement approaches, you are the known, trusted, intellectually credible quantity already in the room.
London, senior directors, and the wider network follow naturally from that foundation. Everything before that is noise.